6/24/2025 8:00 am

Oil prices fell sharply as news of a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased fears of major supply disruptions in the Middle East. Prices had climbed around 10% since mid-June amid escalating hostilities, including U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. But after President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, Brent crude dropped nearly $2 to $69.76 per barrel and WTI fell to $66.85. Market anxiety had centered on Iran’s 3.3 million barrels per day of output and the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. While Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the strait, the final decision rests with its national security council. Analysts noted that a full closure could send oil prices above $100, though that risk now appears diminished. The International Energy Agency and OPEC+ have both indicated spare capacity is available to stabilize the market if needed.

Grain and oilseeds still being pressured from generally favorable Midwest weather the next 10 days of limited hot temps and adequate moisture. Corn G/E slipped 2 points but at 70% is still ahead of last year's 69%. Soybeans 66% G/E is close to last year's 67%.

The CFTC report yesterday was as expected with funds adding more than 20k contracts of corn shorts and short over 185k contracts now. Path of least resistance for corn remains lower.

 6/12/2025