Edwards Market Thoughts

3/8/2021 8:00am 

Old-crop soybeans rallied to fresh move highs overnight— the highest for the spot contract since June 2014—with new-crop corn and beans not far behind, carving out their own contract highs as well. The Brazilian soybean harvest (and second-crop corn planting was hit further by weekend rains, and the bulls are looking forward to steady-to-tighter stocks from the USDA tomorrow and a continued acreage battle into the end of the month.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds cutting 14-17k net contracts in both corn and soybeans on the week ending last Tuesday (March 2), just a bit more than expected by daily trade estimates on both counts. Moves in the rest of the complex were more minor. Producers and merchants added just shy of 20k net corn on the week.

Argentina was mostly dry over the weekend, with a split pattern emerging for the next ten days—wetter west, drier east, which will aid late moisture supplies for soybeans in the former and increase dryness concerns for the latter. Brazil was wet again over the weekend with heavy rains spread from northwest to eastern growing areas. Wet weather continues this week in the far north, with chances shifting west during the 6-10 day; center-south conditions should improve but slow soybean harvest and corn planting remains an issue.


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