1/16/20 8:00am
The U.S.-China trade deal came and went yesterday and the market is clearly indicating skepticism over the official language; phrases like “market conditions” seem to give China plenty of leeway on the size and timing of imports (particularly soybeans) from the U.S. in 2020 and 2021...
Yesterday’s December NOPA soy crush came in at 174.8 million bushels, up from the average trade estimate at 171.6 mbu, 164.9 mbu in November, and 171.8 mbu last year (which was the prior record for the month); it was also the second-largest crush on record for any month, behind 175.4 mbu in October.
Rains and scattered precipitation are starting to fire up in TX and OK this morning, shifting northeastward through Saturday and bringing precip to all but the far western Plains (with heavy snow in the north). Above-normal precip is seen in the 6-10 day time frame as well, drying up a bit in the 11-15 day. Temperatures will drop sharply in the coming days, though little to no winterkill is expected, and conditions are seen moderating now longer-term.
Weekly DOE total fuel ethanol production rose to 1.095 million barrels per day for the week ending January 10, up from 1.062 mln bpd last week and 1.051 mln bpd on the comparable week last year. It was the fourth-largest output week on record, with the week ending 12/1/17 remaining as the all-time high at 1.108 mln bpd. Cumulative output since Sept 1 is up to 1.026 mln bpd, closing the gap on last year’s pace and final figures with the USDA still looking for a basically steady YoY corn use for ethanol number in ‘19/20
