Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the last trading day of the week with 1 3/4 to 3 3/4 cent gains. Dec corn was unchanged on the day (but down 20 ¾ for the week) closing at $3.98 1/2. Ethanol futures closed at $1.53/gal on Friday, with no deliveries against November. CFTC data showed managed money was 11,676 contracts more net long with 320k longs and 43.6k shorts as of 10/27. Commercials were an additional 85,704 contracts net short with the strongest net short since 03/13 of 2018. SAFRAS and Mercado estimate 2020/21 corn production in Brazil at 116.4 MMT. That was a 900k MT increase from the previous forecast.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, unch,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.03 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.06, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.07 1/4, up 3 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures recovered 4 3/4 to 8 1/2 cents on Friday. Despite this, Nov beans were still 2.5% below last Friday’s close. CME noted 300 deliveries against Nov beans. Soy products also closed in the black on Friday. Meal was up $1.20 to $1.70/ton on the day, and BO futures recovered 53 to 55 points by the close. This morning, USDA announced a large soybean export sale for 121,500 MT to unknown. The weekly CoT update showed soybean spec traders were 232,717 contracts net long on 10/27. That was an extra 825 contracts net long vs. the previous week. In soymeal the spec traders were net buyers, increasing their net long 615 contracts to 84,229. Managed money was 94,940 contracts net long in bean oil, up 12,392 contracts on net. Analysts are looking for 170.9 – 172.0 (171.3 av) million bushels of Sept bean crushings in USDA’s Fats and Oils report on Monday. The average of analyst estimates for soy oil stocks is 1.826 billion lbs. SAFRAS and Mercado estimate 2020/21 bean output at 133.5 MMT, which was a 1.33 MMT bump from the previous estimate. Argentine bean processors, SOEA union members, resumed their strike on Friday after the group deemed the COVID relief payment as insufficient.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.48, up 7 3/4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.44 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $378.60, up $1.70

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.61, up $0.55

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the closing bell on Friday, front month wheat futures were down 1/2 to 5 1/4 cents on the CBT. Kansas City HRW was down 3/4 to 1 1/2 cents on the day. MPLS wheat futures closed the session mixed, within a penny of UNCH. CFTC data showed that managed money SRW traders were 48,896 contracts net long on 10/27. That was an 832 contract reduction to the net position by way of more additional shorts. Managed money OI increased 14,740 contracts from week to week. For HRW, spec traders were net buyers and increased their net long 3,264 contracts to 41,410. Managed money speculative traders doubled their MPLS net long to 8,877 contracts.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.98 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.41 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.52 1/4, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday fat cattle trading left the board 2 to 32 cents higher for the front month contracts. October contracts expired at $105.97. Feeder cattle futures closed the session with triple digit gains. Jan feeders were the strongest with a $2.77 gain. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/29 was $136.76, back higher by $2.42. Cash cattle sales were pretty light this week. On Friday sales in NE went for $106, but the bulk of Northern trade was near $103 for the week. In the South the bulk of the cash sales that did take place was $106. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed cattle specs were 14,811 contracts net long on 10/27. The 20k contract weaker net long came by way of long liquidation and new selling. In feeders, managed money was 8,895 contracts net short as of Tuesday. USDA’s wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday widening the premium back to $16.86 cwt. Choice was up $0.78 to $208.10 cwt. but and Select boxes were a penny higher. USDA’s estimate for the week’s cattle slaughter through Saturday is 638,000 head. That is down 5,000 head wk/wk and 21,000 head below the same week last year.

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $108.300, up $0.325,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $110.400, up $0.025,

Apr 21 Cattle closed at $113.650, up $0.125,

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.400, up $1.675

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.125, up $2.775

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.525, up $2.550

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



On the last trade day of the week, lean hog futures were within 30 cents of UNCH. Dec and Feb were in the red, but spring and summer contracts closed higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for the 28th was another 78 cents lower at $75.49. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Friday afternoon was $61.35, down by 31 cents. CFTC data showed a 40,582 contract net long for lean hog spec traders on 10/27. That was a 1,476 lighter net long paired with a 8,142 contract reduction to managed money OI. The National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $83.80 in the PM report, down by $3.77. The primal cuts were sharply lower, led by hams which were down $13.93 cwt. Bellies were the only primal cut quoted higher in the PM report @ $124.70 up by $7.84. They sustained the biggest loss week to week, however. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.683 million head through Saturday. That is 11,000 head more wk/wk and 5,000 more yr/yr.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $65.575, down $0.050,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $65.550, down $0.050

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $68.400, up $0.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday cotton trading left the board 73 to 102 points lower. March 21 was down the most on the day, but Dec was down 237 points from Friday-Friday. Cotton spec traders were net buyers on the week ending 10/27. The weekly CoT report showed a 5,590 contract bump to spec trader OI – leaving the group 70,201 contracts net long. USDA’s weekly Cotton Market Review had the week’s average spot price at 66.19 cents/lb. That was up from 65.72 LW and 4.14 cents better yr/yr. The Cotlook A index for the 29th retreated 145 points to 76.95 cents/lb. The week’s Adjusted World Price for cotton is to 57.37, up 1.66 cents.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 68.92, down 90 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 69.78, down 102 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 70.58, down 91 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 71.26, down 73 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management







Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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